Quick Hit:

A new Gallup poll shows a dramatic shift in Ukrainian public opinion, with nearly seven in ten now saying the war with Russia should end through negotiations “as soon as possible.” Support for fighting until total victory has collapsed since 2022, even as skepticism remains high that peace will come soon.

Key Details:

• Gallup found 69% of Ukrainians now favor an immediate push for negotiations to end the war — a complete reversal from 2022, when 73% wanted to fight until outright victory.
• Just 24% now support fighting “to the bitter end,” while optimism about NATO membership is fading; more believe Ukraine will “never” join NATO than think it will happen within the next decade.
• While 68% doubt the fighting will end within a year, most Ukrainians remain more hopeful about joining the EU, with only 18% saying it will never happen.

Diving Deeper:

Public opinion in Ukraine has undergone a stunning turnaround since Russia’s 2022 invasion, with a new Gallup poll showing most Ukrainians now want the war brought to a negotiated close as soon as possible. Sixty-nine percent of respondents said Ukraine “should seek to negotiate an ending to the war as soon as possible,” up from just 22% in the war’s first year. By contrast, only 24% support continuing the fight until Ukraine achieves total victory, down sharply from 73% in 2022.

Gallup noted that the survey did not cover areas currently under Russian control — home to roughly 10% of Ukraine’s pre-war population — but found the shift in opinion was evident across all regions and demographics.

Despite the overwhelming appetite for talks, optimism that peace is near remains low. Only 5% said it was “very likely” the conflict would see a “lasting end” within 12 months, with 25% calling it very or slightly likely and 68% saying they believe such an outcome is unlikely.

Confidence in NATO membership has also declined sharply. For the first time since the war began, more Ukrainians believe their country will “never” join NATO than believe it will happen within ten years. Another quarter said it could take 10 years or more — including beyond 20 years — to gain membership. By comparison, in 2022, optimism about joining the alliance was nearly double today’s levels.

There is more optimism about the European Union. A clear majority believes eventual membership is coming, with only 18% saying it will “never” happen.

The polling comes as the United States and Russia edge toward potentially more substantive talks, with discussion of a direct meeting between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin within the week. A proposed trilateral meeting that would also include Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appears to have been rejected by Moscow — a move that could stall progress and reinforce Trump’s skepticism that negotiations are yielding meaningful results.

The shift in Ukrainian sentiment puts public opinion at odds with the stated war aims of Zelensky and several European leaders, who continue to insist that the only acceptable outcome is reclaiming all territory recognized by the United Nations as part of Ukraine — including Crimea, which Russia has held for over a decade. In May, the European Union reiterated that it remains committed to this hardline goal, framing it as essential to any lasting settlement.