Quick Hit:

A new poll shows Bernie Moreno, backed by Donald Trump, has pulled ahead of Ohio's incumbent Democrat Senator Sherrod Brown by 3.8%, signaling a tough battle ahead for the key Senate seat.

Key Details:

• ActiVote's poll of 400 likely voters shows Moreno with a 3.8% lead, gaining traction as the race tightens ahead of the 2024 elections. The poll's margin of error is 4.9%.
• Moreno has overwhelming support from right-leaning voters, with 93% of moderate-right and right voters backing him. In Ohio, where the electorate leans more conservative than the national average, this advantage bolsters his lead
• Moreno holds significant appeal with voters in rural and suburban areas, which make up a crucial portion of the Ohio electorate. His support is especially strong among older voters and those with higher incomes, positioning him well for victory in a state with an increasing conservative tilt.

Diving Deeper:

Republican challenger Bernie Moreno, endorsed by former President Donald Trump, has taken a lead over incumbent Democrat Senator Sherrod Brown in the closely watched Ohio Senate race. A recent ActiVote poll released on October 21, 2024, shows Moreno ahead by 3.8%, signaling momentum for the GOP in this critical battleground state.

According to the poll, Moreno has secured strong support among Republicans and right-leaning voters, claiming 93% of those identifying as right or moderate-right. The conservative voter base in Ohio, which skews more right-leaning than the national average, has been key to Moreno’s ability to pull ahead. 

The poll surveyed 400 likely voters between September 23 and October 20, 2024, with a median field date of October 7. The poll has a margin of error of 4.9%, making the race still competitive but trending in Moreno's favor. Brown, seeking his fourth term in the U.S. Senate, faces a tough challenge as Moreno gains traction, particularly in suburban and rural areas, while Brown continues to dominate in urban regions and among younger voters.

Brown's support remains solid with younger voters, Democrats, Black voters, and lower-income individuals, but Moreno is either leading or tied in nearly all other demographic categories. With Ohio being a key state in determining control of the Senate, the outcome of this race will be closely watched, especially given Trump's continued influence within the Republican Party.