Quick Hit:

In her Aug. 7, 2025 Wall Street Journal op-ed, Kimberley A. Strassel argues that Democrats have overplayed their hand in the latest round of redistricting battles. By responding to Republican efforts in Texas with aggressive map-redrawing threats in California and Illinois, she says Democrats have provoked the GOP into escalating in states where Republicans hold a structural advantage. The result, Strassel warns, could leave Democrats worse off than before.

Key Details:

• Strassel writes that Democrats have “already redistricted the dickens out of their states,” limiting their ability to gain more seats.
  
  
• Republicans, by contrast, control legislative lines for 55 Democratic seats, compared to Democrats’ control over 35 GOP seats.
  
  
• Democratic-led states with “independent” redistricting commissions, like California, have created self-imposed hurdles, now requiring extraordinary steps to change maps.

Diving Deeper:

In her sharply worded column, Strassel likens Democrats’ reaction to Texas’ redistricting plan to “watching Flick respond to that triple-dog dare in ‘A Christmas Story.’” She argues that Democrats’ decision to retaliate by threatening new maps in deep-blue states such as California and Illinois is the political equivalent of sticking “their tongue to a frozen flagpole.”

Republicans, she notes, were initially focused on gaining five U.S. House seats in Texas, but the Democratic response has opened the door for the GOP to target additional states like Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Indiana, South Carolina, and New Hampshire. “It’s a mystery what Democrats thought they’d accomplish beyond provoking Republicans to escalate further,” Strassel observes, pointing out that in a nationwide race, “Democrats don’t have much running room.”

Strassel uses hard numbers to highlight the imbalance: “States with Democratic state legislative majorities currently control the lines for about 35 GOP seats… Republican state legislative majorities control the lines for 55 Democratic seats. The difference is the GOP advantage in the war Democrats have escalated. Whoops.”

Adding to their challenge, Democrats in several states previously championed “independent” commissions to take politics out of redistricting. Strassel notes that California Gov. Gavin Newsom is now pursuing a plan to sideline the commission voters approved in 2008, a process that would require both a supermajority in the legislature and a public vote. Even with those changes, she warns, Democrats may only “eke out a few more seats,” and any gains could be erased by Republican maneuvers in their own strongholds.

The Democrats’ strategy may also be driven by internal political ambitions, according to Strassel. Figures like Newsom and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker could be using the fight to “dominate the national discussion” ahead of a possible presidential primary. Still, Strassel cautions that the real consequence of this gambit is giving Republicans “an excuse to go nuclear in a war in which the left lacks fissile material.”

Strassel’s bottom line: Democrats have turned a localized battle in Texas into a national escalation they are poorly positioned to win, failing to adapt to a political map where Republicans hold the long-term advantage.

"J. B. Pritzker" by Gage Skidmore licensed under (CC BY-SA 2.0)