Quick Hit:

President Joe Biden's exit from the race and endorsement of Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee might not reverse the decline in black voter support. Former President Donald Trump is making significant inroads with this demographic, potentially reshaping American politics.

Key Details:

• Kamala Harris, less popular with black voters than Biden, now leads the Democratic ticket.

• Trump’s support among black voters has more than doubled since 2020, from 9% to 21%.

• A CBS News poll shows Trump with 25% support among younger black voters (ages 18 to 49).

Diving Deeper:

President Joe Biden's decision to drop out of the race and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris positions her as the Democratic frontrunner. However, polling data suggests that Harris might struggle to reverse Biden’s decline in support from black voters, potentially aiding former President Donald Trump in the 2024 election. Aaron Flanigan from the Association of Mature American Citizens highlights this dynamic in his recent op-ed, "Trump’s Gains With Black Voters Could Decide 2024—And The Future Of American Politics."

Throughout Biden’s presidency, Harris has consistently been less popular with black voters compared to Biden. A 2021 poll revealed that only 38% of black voters believed Harris cared "a lot" about them, in stark contrast to the 78% who felt the same about former President Barack Obama.

A recent CBS News poll indicates that Trump is maintaining similar levels of support among black voters against Harris as he did against Biden, with 21% backing Trump. This support has more than doubled from 9% in 2020, while Biden's support among black voters has dropped from 81% to 69%. Among younger black voters, aged 18 to 49, Trump now enjoys an unprecedented 25% support. Even the liberal Washington Post acknowledged Trump’s potential to set "modern-day records" with black voters this fall.

"No Republican presidential candidate in the past 50 years has approached receiving 20 percent of the Black vote," reported the Post. Historically, Republicans have averaged 9% of the black vote over the past half-century, making Trump’s current polling numbers particularly significant.

Flanigan notes, “While no one expects for Trump to win the black vote outright, even a five to ten percent bump from 2020 could propel him to a sweeping electoral victory.”

Trump’s increasing support among black voters can be attributed to his targeted outreach efforts. In June, he held a community roundtable at a black church in Detroit, criticizing Biden as the "worst president for black people," citing the impact of illegal immigration on the African American community. As Biden’s vice president and Border Czar, Harris shares responsibility for these issues.

In February, Trump addressed the Black Conservative Federation, highlighting his first-term accomplishments and stressing the importance of the upcoming election for black communities. "I’m thrilled to be here tonight with Crooked Joe Biden’s absolute worst nightmare: hundreds of proud, black, conservative American patriots," Trump stated. He emphasized the benefits of Republican policies, including strong borders, safe neighborhoods, rising wages, and better education.

Under the Biden-Harris administration, real wages for black Americans have fallen by nearly six percent, and most new jobs have gone to foreign-born individuals, many of whom are likely illegal immigrants. Trump has used these points to appeal to black voters on the campaign trail, highlighting his record-low African American unemployment and poverty rates, increased black homeownership, and funding for historically black colleges and universities.

Flanigan argues that Trump’s success with black voters has been building for years. He writes, “In the early months of 2020—before COVID-19 reached America’s shores and the nation’s Democrat-run cities descended into anarchy—Trump might in fact have been well on his way to achieving a historic share of the black vote.”

Despite Democrat-induced racial division following the death of George Floyd, Trump increased his share of the African American vote by 50 percent compared to 2016, rising from 8% to 12%. “If it had not been for the so-called ‘summer of love’ and the ‘fiery but mostly peaceful’ protests that wrought havoc on American cities and communities for months on end, it is not unreasonable to speculate that Trump might have even more significantly outperformed his 2016 performance with black voters,” Flanigan adds.

Barring another wave of violence similar to the 2020 protests, Trump might secure a historically large share of the black vote, potentially transforming American politics for decades. As Trump declared at a recent rally in Doral, Florida, "The Republican Party is bigger, stronger, more vibrant and more united than ever, ever, ever before... African Americans, Hispanic Americans, Asian Americans, young people, old people, union members, non-union members—basically everyone is joining our movement because it’s a movement of common sense."

If current polling trends continue, Trump's prediction may prove true, significantly impacting the 2024 election and the future of American politics.